The Heavy Melting Scrap Price Trend in Q3 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable, with some regional differences across the global market. 

Heavy Melting Scrap (HMS) is an important raw material for steel production, and its prices are closely connected to steel demand, scrap availability, transportation costs, and purchasing activity from steel mills. 

During the third quarter of 2026, the overall market outlook suggests stable to mildly bearish conditions. While the Netherlands may experience some downward price pressure, Turkey and the USA are expected to maintain relatively steady prices. 

This outlook indicates that the market is likely to move within a limited range rather than experience major price increases or sudden declines.

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Understanding the Heavy Melting Scrap Market in 2026

Heavy Melting Scrap, commonly known as HMS, is one of the widely used types of recycled steel scrap. It generally comes from old machinery, industrial equipment, demolished buildings, heavy steel structures, and other discarded steel products.

Steel manufacturers use HMS as a raw material in steelmaking, particularly in electric arc furnace production. Instead of depending entirely on newly produced raw materials, steel producers can use recycled steel to manufacture new steel products.

The demand for HMS is therefore closely connected to the overall condition of the steel industry. When construction, infrastructure, automotive manufacturing, and industrial activity are performing well, steel demand generally improves. This can encourage steel mills to purchase more scrap.

However, when steel demand becomes weak, mills may reduce their purchasing activity. This can create pressure on scrap prices, especially when sufficient material is already available in the market.

In 2026, these market factors are expected to play an important role in shaping the Heavy Melting Scrap Price Trend during Q3.

Heavy Melting Scrap Price Forecast Q3 2026

The Q3 2026 outlook for Heavy Melting Scrap Prices is stable with a mildly bearish direction in selected regions. The market is expected to experience different movements depending on local supply conditions, steel mill demand, import requirements, and export activity.

The overall confidence level for this forecast is high, although actual price movements may change depending on market developments during the quarter.

Three important markets to watch during Q3 2026 are the Netherlands, Turkey, and the USA.

Netherlands: Mildly Bearish Price Outlook

The Netherlands is expected to experience mildly bearish Heavy Melting Scrap prices during Q3 2026.

One of the main reasons behind this outlook is the availability of sufficient scrap material. When scrap supply remains comfortable, buyers generally have less pressure to increase their purchasing prices. This can limit the possibility of price increases.

Another important factor is cautious purchasing activity from steel mills. When steel manufacturers are careful about their raw material requirements, they may avoid purchasing large quantities at higher prices. This can create additional pressure on the market.

Export demand is also expected to remain subdued. When international buyers show limited interest, local scrap suppliers may face fewer opportunities to sell material at higher prices.

However, the possibility of a significant price decline may remain limited because collection costs are expected to stay relatively stable. Scrap collection, sorting, handling, and transportation all contribute to the final selling price.

As a result, the Netherlands market is likely to experience moderate downward pressure rather than a sharp decline in Q3 2026.

Turkey: Stable Heavy Melting Scrap Prices

Turkey is expected to maintain relatively stable Heavy Melting Scrap prices during Q3 2026.

Turkey is an important market for imported steel scrap, and its purchasing activity can influence international scrap trade. The country's demand for imported HMS is closely connected to steel production and the performance of its finished steel market.

During Q3 2026, balanced import requirements are expected to support market stability. This means that buyers are likely to purchase scrap according to their production requirements without creating significant additional pressure on the market.

Steady demand for finished steel products is another supportive factor. When steel sales remain consistent, manufacturers generally maintain their raw material purchasing activity.

Deep-sea scrap offers are also expected to show limited fluctuations. Since imported scrap plays an important role in the Turkish market, changes in international offers can influence local purchasing decisions.

If import prices remain within a relatively narrow range and steel mills continue buying steadily, the market is likely to avoid major price movements.

Overall, Turkey's Heavy Melting Scrap Price Trend is expected to remain stable in Q3 2026, supported by balanced demand and supply conditions.

USA: Stable Market Conditions Expected

The United States is also expected to maintain stable Heavy Melting Scrap prices during Q3 2026.

The domestic scrap market is supported by a balance between material availability and steel mill purchasing requirements. When supply and demand remain relatively balanced, prices generally have less reason to move sharply in either direction.

Consistent buying activity from steel mills is expected to provide support to the market. Steel producers require a regular supply of scrap to maintain production, and this creates a certain level of demand.

Another important factor is steady scrap generation. The availability of recycled steel from industrial activities, manufacturing, construction, and other sources helps maintain the domestic supply chain.

When scrap generation remains consistent and mills continue purchasing regularly, the market can maintain a relatively stable position.

Based on these conditions, the USA is expected to experience limited price fluctuations rather than a strong upward or downward movement during Q3 2026.

Key Factors Influencing the Heavy Melting Scrap Price Trend

Several factors can influence the direction of Heavy Melting Scrap prices. Understanding these factors helps buyers, suppliers, steel manufacturers, and market participants make better purchasing and planning decisions.

1. Steel Mill Purchasing Activity

Steel mills are among the most important buyers in the scrap market. Their purchasing decisions directly influence demand.

When mills increase production, they generally require more scrap. This can support prices. On the other hand, reduced purchasing activity can create downward pressure, particularly when suppliers have sufficient material available.

2. Scrap Availability and Collection

The availability of scrap is another major factor.

When scrap collection remains strong, buyers may have more material to choose from. This can reduce competition among buyers and limit price increases.

However, when scrap availability becomes limited, suppliers may have stronger bargaining power.

3. Finished Steel Demand

Demand for finished steel products plays an important role in determining scrap consumption.

Construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, automotive production, and industrial development all influence steel demand.

If these sectors perform well, steel mills may increase production and purchase more HMS. If demand slows, scrap consumption may also weaken.

4. International Trade and Import Demand

International trade is particularly important for markets that depend on imported scrap.

Changes in import requirements, shipping activity, international offers, and export demand can influence local market conditions.

Turkey is a good example of how international scrap trade can affect the overall price direction.

5. Transportation and Collection Costs

Scrap prices are also affected by the cost of collecting, sorting, processing, and transporting material.

Even when demand is weak, stable collection and transportation costs can prevent prices from falling too sharply.

This factor is particularly relevant to the mildly bearish outlook for the Netherlands in Q3 2026.

Heavy Melting Scrap Prices: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

The outlook for Heavy Melting Scrap Prices in Q3 2026 suggests that market participants should prepare for relatively stable conditions.

In the Netherlands, buyers may find some opportunities to negotiate prices because sufficient scrap availability and cautious mill purchasing could create downward pressure.

In Turkey, buyers and sellers may continue operating in a balanced market. Stable finished steel demand and limited changes in deep-sea scrap offers are expected to reduce the possibility of sudden price movements.

In the USA, consistent mill buying and steady scrap generation should help maintain market stability.

For buyers, this environment makes regular market monitoring important. Instead of making purchasing decisions based on short-term expectations, businesses should consider actual demand, available inventory, delivery requirements, and supplier offers.

For sellers, maintaining consistent material quality, reliable supply, and competitive pricing can help support business activity during a period of limited price movement.

Heavy Melting Scrap Price Chart: Understanding Market Movements

A Heavy Melting Scrap Price Chart is a useful tool for understanding how scrap prices change over time.

Buyers and sellers can use historical price charts to compare previous market movements with current conditions. A chart can also help identify whether prices are increasing, decreasing, or moving within a stable range.

For Q3 2026, the general forecast indicates three different regional market directions:

• Netherlands: Mildly bearish, with sufficient scrap availability and cautious purchasing activity.

• Turkey: Stable, supported by balanced import requirements and steady finished steel demand.

• USA: Stable, supported by consistent mill buying and balanced domestic supply and demand.

It is important to understand that a forecast outlook does not represent a confirmed numerical price movement. Actual chart values depend on the selected HMS grade, transaction location, delivery terms, and market assessment date.

Regularly reviewing price movements can help businesses understand market direction and avoid making decisions based only on assumptions.

Heavy Melting Scrap Price Index and Its Importance

The Heavy Melting Scrap Price Index is another useful reference for people involved in the steel and recycling industries.

A price index helps market participants understand the general direction of scrap prices over a selected period. Instead of focusing only on an individual transaction, an index can provide a broader picture of market performance.

For example, if the index remains relatively unchanged over several weeks, it may indicate that market conditions are stable. If the index starts moving downward, it may suggest weaker demand, increased availability, or reduced purchasing interest.

Similarly, an upward movement may indicate stronger demand, tighter supply, or higher international buying activity.

For Q3 2026, the expected stable to mildly bearish market outlook suggests that the Heavy Melting Scrap Price Index may show limited movement across the major markets discussed.

However, each region should be evaluated separately because local supply and demand conditions can produce different price trends.

Global HMS Market Outlook for Q3 2026

Looking at the global market, Q3 2026 is expected to be a period of relative stability rather than significant price changes.

The Netherlands may face some downward pressure because scrap availability is adequate and export demand remains subdued. However, stable collection costs could help prevent a major decline.

Turkey is expected to maintain a balanced position because import requirements, finished steel demand, and deep-sea scrap offers are not anticipated to experience major fluctuations.

The USA is also expected to remain stable, with domestic supply and demand conditions supporting consistent market activity.

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These differences show why it is important to understand individual regional markets instead of depending only on a general global price direction.

Although the overall forecast is stable, changes in steel production, international trade, transportation expenses, and scrap collection could influence actual prices throughout the quarter.

The Heavy Melting Scrap Price Trend for Q3 2026 is expected to remain stable with a mildly bearish outlook in selected markets. The Netherlands may experience some downward pressure due to adequate scrap availability, cautious steel mill purchasing, and subdued export demand. However, stable collection costs are expected to limit significant price declines.

Turkey is likely to maintain stable Heavy Melting Scrap prices because of balanced import requirements, steady finished steel demand, and limited fluctuations in deep-sea scrap offers. Meanwhile, the USA is also expected to experience stable market conditions, supported by consistent mill buying activity and steady domestic scrap generation.

For steel manufacturers, scrap traders, recyclers, and procurement professionals, understanding these regional differences will be important when planning purchases and managing inventory during the quarter.

Overall, the Q3 2026 market outlook points towards controlled price movements rather than major increases or declines. Keeping track of the Heavy Melting Scrap Price Chart, monitoring the Heavy Melting Scrap Price Index, and regularly reviewing supply and demand conditions can help businesses make more informed decisions.

The most important takeaway is that the global HMS market is expected to remain balanced, but regional market conditions will continue to determine the actual direction of prices.

About Price Watch™ 

Price Watch™ is an India-based, independent raw material price reporting agency that provides real-time price forecasts and data-driven insights into global raw material markets. Price Watch™ specializes in tracking raw material prices, analyzing market trends, and delivering timely updates on plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, capacity expansions, and demand-supply dynamics. The Price Watch™ platform empowers manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals to make faster, smarter decisions. Leveraging AI-powered forecasting and over a decade of historical data, Price Watch™ transforms market volatility into actionable opportunity. 

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